basispoints.art
Course · Act I: Rates Move · Chapter 5

The yield curve and inversion

How to read the yield curve: normal, flat and inverted, the 10-year minus 2-year spread, two real Treasury curves from 2021 and 2023, and why inversions worry people.

Key terms

Yield curve
Treasury yields plotted against maturity, on one day. Normally slopes up.
Inverted yield curve
Short maturities yield more than long ones; 10-year minus 2-year below zero. Often, not always, a recession warning.

“The Yield Curve” is part of the full course: 7 puzzles on the yield curve and inversion. Gullwing and Osprey are fictional banks; the Treasury yields and Fed rates are real. Try this act’s free chapter, “A Loan You Can Sell”, first.

Play the free chapter →See the course